Phoney Tony gets his knuckles rapped

Australian golfer Greg Norman is quoted as saying, “It’s not the victories that count to me. It’s the quality of how you deliver your losses and the quality of how you deliver your victories”. For Tony Blair, whose Labour Party won the May 2005 election in the UK, the quality of the victory was dismal. Granted, Blair won a historic third term and is the only UK prime minister since the war, with Margaret Thatcher, to have triumphed in three successive general elections. But his majority of 161 seats was cut dramatically to 67; less than half of what it was in the landslide victories of 1997 and 2001. More alarming for Blair is that his party now has the lowest share of the vote for a UK ruling party in modern times. Due to the “first past the post” electoral system, Labour holds 55% of the seats in parliament. However, it has only 35% of the share of the vote, with the Conservatives holding 32% and the Liberal Democrats 22%. So, although Blair won the election, the electorate has rapped his knuckles. Blair acknowledges that Iraq was ‘deeply divisive’, and commentators put it and the lack of trust in Blair generally at the core of the slump in the Labour vote. A recent Populus poll found that close to half of the public who claim to have once trusted Blair feel this has now been lost. It is no wonder that taunting names such as B-Liar and Phoney Tony have stuck in the public consciousness.

Meeting of the NATO-Russia Council
Paul Morse / Public domain

But will Blair go? No one really knows. There are strong calls for him to hand over to Gordon Brown, his most likely successor, sooner rather than later. Blair insists he will see out his term of office and is already trying to rush legislation through on controversial issues ranging from immigration control to identity cards. Blair is obviously a fighter, but he is also driven by concerns about his own legacy. This is partly what drove him into his fated relationship with George W Bush. I think he rather fancied the idea of waging a Churchillian-style global war and writing his name indelibly into the history books. His ambitions got the better of him.

For Africa, however, there may be a silver lining in Blair’s gradual demise. If I am correct and Blair worries not only about his current reputation but how history will write about him, he will have to do something spectacular before he leaves office to set the record straight. In that regard, he will have his eye keenly on his forthcoming role as chair of the G8. In a perverse way, coupled with growing pressure from campaigns such as Make Poverty History, perhaps he will choose the current context to make a move on African debt relief. Not only will this balance his blunders in Iraq and increase his international standing, at least in his mind, he will also steal the thunder from Brown, who has championed the Africa debt issue. So, as Blair scrambles to save his tarnished image, now is the time for antidebt campaigners to turn up the heat. Who knows, for some of the wrong reasons (and hopefully some right ones too), maybe Blair is ready to agree to sweeping debt relief following the G8 Summit in July. Like Blair’s election, the quality of such a victory may not be entirely satisfying for antidebt campaigners, but this will be of little concern if its impact makes a real difference in Africa.

This article by Brandon Hamber was published on Polity and in the Engineering News on 27 May 2005 as part of the column "Look South". Copyright Brandon Hamber.

Dr Brown, I presume?

The African explorer David Livingstone set out in 1865, at the age of 52, on his final and famous journey to Africa. At roughly the same age, almost a century and a half later, Gordon Brown, another Scot with grand ideas, has travelled to the continent.

Brown, the British Chancellor of the Exchequer or Finance Minister, leaves behind the alleged rifts between himself and Tony Blair for a fleeting six day visit to Kenya, Tanzania, Mozambique and South Africa. As he grinds through his relentless schedule in Africa the tensions with Blair, which will ultimately determine whether Brown will follow him as British Prime Minister or not, may well seem a million miles away.

Brown's African mission is to put Africa at the centre of plans for the G8, for which the UK holds the presidency this year.

Remarkably, however, Brown was last on the continent seven years ago for a short stopover in Johannesburg. He can hardly claim to have a feel for the place. This has not stopped him, though, from routinely arguing for an aid injection and a debt relief strategy for Africa over the last ten years.

In a recent speech he called for a Marshall Plan for the developing world. He has argued that at least $50-billion more a year in foreign aid is needed, effectively doubling the current amount spent by the rich countries on aid. His government, he says, is committed to an ongoing process of debt relief. He has stated that insisting on payment of debts by certain African countries is "unjust" because "it offends human dignity" and is "morally wrong".

Importantly he has reiterated a commitment to the UN Millennium Development Goals. These include the promises by wealthy nations to assist in ensuring that by 2015:

- Every child will be at school.

- Avoidable infant deaths will be prevented.

- Poverty will be halved.

So Brown is making the right noises as far as addressing poverty in Africa is concerned.

Of course, in reality, the goals he talks about are a long way off. He has confessed, for example, that in sub-Saharan Africa at present progress, poverty would only be halved by 2150; a remarkable 135 years behind schedule.

His visit to Africa will undoubtedly help bring home the reality of some of the more desperate parts of the continent. Hopefully this will strengthen his seeming resolve to meet his commitments.

Needless to say there is no room for complacency. There are many lofty ideals and pledges the world has failed to meet. Most affluent countries are still not complying with the recommended level of 0,7% of GDP for foreign aid, Britain included. There is no guarantee any of the prosperous nations will follow through on the proposed plans or alter their trade and debt practices.

Paul Ashwin / Edinburgh Castle on the day of the
Make Poverty History March / CC BY-SA 2.0

This is one of the reasons The Make Poverty History campaign was launched in the UK on January 1, 2005. It is a coalition of UK-based charities, unions, nongovernment organisations and celebrities, who have come together to demand that well-off countries increase aid, improve working conditions for the poor, cancel world debt, and use fair trade practices. The coalition is part of the worldwide Global Call to Action Against Poverty which plans to continue to robustly raise the issue of poverty in 2005.

So the stage is set once again for a showdown between the sweet-talking governments and campaigners. Somewhere in the middle of this are the African governments, many of whom will have to get their own act together if they are to become genuine "partners" in the new wave of development Brown promises. But that is another story.

In the meantime, in the spirit of the new year, and in defiance of the Tsunami tragedy that marked it, I feel I want to give Gordon Brown the benefit of the doubt. I long for the day when there is a good news story about the African continent.

So, right now, as Chancellor Brown, in his open-neck shirt and chinos presses the flesh with dozens of expectant Africans, I am going to cut him some slack. I want to see if he can put his money where his mouth is.

This is his big test. If he can deliver the goods, and survive the whiplash smile of Tony Blair and dodge the political daggers in Britain poised for his back, he may well be a British Prime Minister to be remembered.

If he fails, unlike Dr Livingstone, I cannot imagine anyone with a serious social conscience sending out a Henry Stanley-style search party to rescue him from the political wilderness. Brown will either ride on the wave of goodwill that is currently sweeping the UK, or he will find his political career, like Livingstone's heart, buried in Africa.

To find out more about The Make Poverty History campaign.

This article by Brandon Hamber was published on Polity and in the Engineering News on 14 January 2005 as part of the column "Look South". Copyright Brandon Hamber.